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Daily Market Analysis 13 Jan 2023 Friday

Market Structure : Bearish / Sell on Rise

There is a lot of valuable information in this Market Analysis to benefit from these data points read it till last.

Nifty Analysis :

1. Nifty Broke Last 2 days lower range of 17840, traded around this level for few hours after breaking it.
2. Nifty traded below the Weekly low and also touched the Previous Month low.
3. After breaking the Previous Month Low, Nifty recovered 100 points from the lowest point.
4. Nifty made a Swing Low of on 30th September 2022 around 16747 level
5. after that made a high on 01st December 2022 around 18887
6. Currently Nifty trading at 50% Fib Retracement of that Swing, If the Market plans to go up, this level should be sustained.
7. If this 50% Swing Breaks, further selling can be seen in the markets.

Nifty Weekly Options Data :

1. Weekly Options Expiry Data for 19th Jan 2023 show that options sellers sold 5.18 Crore Calls vs 3.4 Crore Puts, Put Call Ratio at 0.66, which is bearish sign
2. In Weekly Options traders sold 17900 Short Straddle, which is At the Money have 300 points of premium.
3. Which means traders are expecting a range of 18200 to 17600 for this week.
4. As per Weekly options data, another important support at 17500 (but the OI is very low, when compared with 18000 call OI)
5. Weekly resistance at 18000, Options sellers written a lot of Calls compared to puts.
6. Note : This option Sellers View Can change in just one day.

Nifty Monthly Options Data :

1. As per Jan Monthly Expiry Data suggests that traders are creating 18000 and 17900 short straddles with a premium of 380 to 390 points.
2. That means as per this data, the range that is suggested till month end expiry 18300-400 to 17900-800
3. Option Sellers sold 2.91 Crore Calls vs 3.24 Crore Puts, Put Call Ratio at 1.11, which is Bullish sign for month end expiry.
4. In Monthly options, Monthly support and resistance levels are at 17500 puts written and 18500 calls written.

Bank Nifty Analysis :

1. Bank Nifty also broke last 2 days range on lower range, But not even single hourly candle closed below the Previous Week’s low.
2. Previous Month’s low is 150 to 200 points away from today’s low. Previous Monthly Low is at 41570 spot
3. After breaking the previous week’s low and touching previous day’s low, Bank Nifty recovered almost 300 points from the low.
4. Same like Nifty Bank Nifty made a swing low of 37386 on 30th September 2022
5. After that made a high of 44151 on 14th Dec 2022
6. Currently Bank Nifty trading at 38.2% Fib Retracement level
7. If this 38.2% Level breaks can see further selling in Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty Weekly Options Data :

1. As per options data traders created short straddles at 42000, Premium is around 880 points
2. That means options sellers are expecting the market to trade between 42900 to 41100 levels
3. Option Sellers sold 1.43 Crore Calls vs 99 Lakh Puts, Put Call Ratio at 0.69. Which is a Bearish sign for this week’s Expiry
4. Weekly major Resistance at 43000 and minor support at 41000

Bank Nifty Monthly Options Data :

1. As Per Monthly Options data, Option Sellers sold 72 Lakh Calls vs 65 Lakh Puts, Put Call Ratio at 0.9. Which is neutral to slightly Bearish Sign
2. Coming to individual strikes option data, Options sellers sold 42000 straddle with slightly more puts, 20% to 30% more puts than calls.
3. 42000 Short Straddle premium at 1180, that means these option sellers are expecting a range of 40800 to 43200 till month end expiry.
4. On Lower side puts written at every 500 points distance with light calls OI
5. On the upside along with calls puts are written at every 500 points distance. Calls are higher and puts are slightly lower at every 500 points distance.
6. Monthly Support and Resistance as per options data is 41000 as Support and 43000 as Resistance.

Final Thoughts :

Based on the price action, it is suggesting Sell on Rallies market and the Weekly options data is also suggesting the same for short term till this Week’s Expiry.

If you are seeing anything else other than what I’m seeing from this data, post your view below in the comments section.