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Daily Market Analysis 20 Feb 2023 Monday

Market Structure : Bearish / Sell on Rise

Based on last 2 days price action, Nifty and Bank Nifty both are in Bearish mode. Recently Nifty’s trend changed to bullish from bearish for short term.

Nifty Analysis :

1. After the breakout, Nifty rejected from the 18100 level. See Nifty Hourly chart for breakout.
2. On 31st January Daily Market Analysis, I said Nifty may retest 17900 and 18100 levels.
   • From Now on, I’m going to indicate these levels with yellow lines on the chart
   • Based on my technical analysis, market may retest these levels 90% of the time at some point.
   • You can see these lines in my daily charts.
   • And on Weekly Chart also, I’m plotting one level, that is 17630 level.
3. After the breakout Nifty may make a pull back and go higher again, we can see the 50% or 61.2% Fib Levels from the bottom to top.
   • 50% Fib level is around 17740 from bottom (17350) to top (18130)
   • 61.2% Fib level is around 17650
   • There is a possibility that market may test these levels before moving higher.
4. Nifty’s Trend is in Near term Bearish mode (for a few days, until it closes higher again).

Nifty Options Data :

1. You can access the Nifty Historical Options Data for 17th Feb 2023
2. Option Sellers added, heavy calls at 18000
3. Option Sellers are maintaining 17900 Short Straddles with decent quantity.
4. There is decent amount of Put writing at 18000 strike as well.
5. Put Call Ratio is at 0.75, which is a bearish sign.
6. This is monthly expiry week, so anything can happen in this week.

Bank Nifty Analysis :

1. Bank Nifty broke out of the previous range and, rejected exactly from the budget day’s selling point.
2. Bank Nifty reacted more than Nifty on Friday.
3. Bank Nifty broken the consolidation range and closed in the range again.
4. There is a selling zone in Bank Nifty exactly at the closing point.
   • If Bank Nifty opens above this level, this will act as support.
   • If Bank Nifty opens below this level, this will act as resistance.
5. Same like in Nifty charts, I’m indicating few level with yellow lines
   • Bank Nifty may retest these levels at some of the time.
   • And on Weekly Chart also, I’m plotting two levels.
6. Bank Nifty is still in Short term down trend. See Hourly Chart below

Bank Nifty Options Data :

1. You can access the Bank Nifty Historical Options Data for 17th Feb 2023
2. Option sellers added, heavy calls at 41500 level
3. Highest OI on Put side is at 41000
4. Put Call Ratio is at 0.56, which is bearish sign.

Final Thoughts :

1. After breakout, Nifty may be taking a pullback (this is my view)
2. Nifty and Bank Nifty both are in bearish mode for few days, until closing higher again in daily timeframe.
3. I’m going to use yellow lines on my chart to plot, potential retest levels in future.
4. There is a selling zone, in Bank Nifty. This level can be used, where the Bank Nifty is going to open.
5. I’m expecting a range bound to sideways day today, based on Friday’s Price Action.
   • On Friday Bank Nifty made a trending day, but not Nifty
   • So after trending day, market may take a pause creating a sideways to range bound day.
   • But if the market crosses the previous day’s low, there is no need to hold on to this range bound day’s view.

If you are seeing anything else other than what I’m seeing from this data, post your view below in the comments section.

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Disclaimer : I’m not a SEBI registered analyst, these are my views only.